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"If the world fails to deliver a political agreement at the UN climate conference in December, it will be the whole global democratic system not being able to deliver results in one of the defining challenges of our century." Incoming COP15 President, Connie Hedegaard
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"South Africa's expectation is that Copenhagen will achieve a strengthened multilateral climate change regime that balances mitigation and adaptation; a regime that resolves the climate crisis facing current and future generations while simultaneously supporting future sustainable economic development in developing countries that has the co-benefit of avoiding emissions." - Buyelwa Sonjica, Minister of Water and Environmental Affairs
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Claire Davis and Emma Archer, SARVA Project
The Department of Environmental Affairs presented South Africa's emerging position in the international climate change talks at their second national information and consultation session held in Pretoria in November 2009.
The purpose of the national consultations was to provide key stakeholders (civil society, NGOs, the public and other government departments and institutions) with updated information on the status of international climate change negotiations. Stakeholders in attendance - which included representatives of the South African Risk and Vulnerability Atlas - were given the opportunity to discuss South Africa's priorities, key issues and expected outcomes in order to build a common understanding in our country's approach for COP15.
With the Copenhagen Summit looming, South Africa's lead negotiators were preparing to enter into the critical phase of international negotiations.
South Africa's expectations for the outcome of Copenhagen were informed by national interests, which outlined a plan that considered how to deal with the negative impacts of climate change on South Africa "that simultaneously supported the building of future sustainable economic development, competitiveness and growth in a way that enhanced social and environmental development".
The information presented by Alf Wills, Deputy Director General of the Department of Environmental Affairs made it clear that Copenhagen was expected to deliver a comprehensive international programme on adaptation linked to international finance and technology (0.5% to 1% of GDP of developed countries). Developed countries (Annex 1 countries), however, were seeking an adaptation framework based on the premise that adaptation to the impacts of climatic changes was a local or national issue.
In terms of carbon reduction, South Africa and other developing countries (Non-Annex 1 countries) proposed at least 40% reduction below 1990 levels by 2020. Since the meeting in Bangkok, the EU has shifted its position to align with the USA, Japan and Australia in insisting on low targets and a single legally binding outcome, as well as the demise of the Kyoto Protocol. Such tactics of developed countries are expected to negatively affect South Africa's expected outcomes as it would slow down negotiations by loading talks with detail and by isolating the major developing countries.
Essentially, at this point in the pre-Copenhagen negotiations, two sets of numbers remained particularly critical, and were, realistically, unlikely to be successfully negotiated in a legally binding manner (Yahoo News, November 17th 2009).
Firstly, countries must agree how much finance should be provided to developing countries to respond to climate change. Secondly, agreement must be reached as to how much developed countries would reduce greenhouse gas emissions over the next ten years.
In her address at the national information and consultation session, Buyelwa Sonjica, Minister of Water and Environmental Affairs said that South Africa's expectation was that Copenhagen would achieve a strengthened multilateral climate change regime that balances mitigation and adaptation; a regime that resolves the climate crisis facing current and future generations while simultaneously supporting future sustainable economic development in developing countries that has the co-benefit of avoiding emissions.
"Yet, it is increasingly becoming clearer as we approach Copenhagen that this outcome is threatened by the developed world's inability to acknowledge and act on its historical responsibility," she concluded.
The goal for Copenhagen has effectively been reset as a political agreement, with Ban Ki Moon referring to a 'significant agreement in Copenhagen that will provide the foundation for a treaty next year'. Whether a full treaty in the next six months is likely, given current levels of disagreement about critical issues remains to be seen.
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