Predicted climate change and sea-level rise have far-reaching consequences for coastal areas. Thus, there is a need to predict future coastline locations. This will aid placement of developments/infrastructure, and lead to an understanding of other adaptation options.
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| Impact of March 2007 storm in KwaZulu-Natal - example of existing problems likely to worsen due to climate change (Photo: D Phelp) |
Requirements for predicting coastlines include:
- Improved understanding of interconnected coastal/ physical processes (e.g. the interaction between sea-level rise and changing storm intensities); and
- An accurate profile response model.
Drawing a contour line is not sufficient, e.g. more realistic run-up prediction techniques are required, as illustrated in the picture above.
Planning of adaptation options can be enhanced by means of scenario modelling, regional connectivity modelling and calculation of regional sediment budgets.
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| Illustration of predicted coastal wave run-up including Climate Change effects |
By Andre Theron & Hardus Diedericks
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